Development of a method for quantitative evaluation and prediction of information security with restricted access on the basis of Markov random processes

Authors: Bordak I. V., Rosenko A. P.

Annotation: In this paper a method and software implementation are developed to determine the probabilities of the effects of the implementation of the attacker threats for the security of restricted information on the basis of Markov random processes when subjected to an automated information system of dependent threats. The proposed method and software-based Markov random processes showed the possibility to realize a quantitative evaluation of the safety the security of restricted information, which will allow using the obtained data to develop evidence-based organizational and preventive measures to improve protection of the security restricted information. Developed and justified practical recommendations, minimize material damage due to the choice of optimal strategies, the methods and remedies the security of restricted information.

Keywords: information security, threats, mathematical model, mathematical modeling, markov random processes