Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process for choosing a forecasting model for the consumer price index in Russia

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Authors: Kasyan E. A., Nemirovich-Danchenko M. M.

Annotation: The work is devoted to solving the problem of decision-making when choosing a forecasting model on the example of the forecast of the consumer price index (CPI) of Russia. Projections of the CPI were obtained for 2021-2023 on five models. To select the most acceptable model, the qualitative criteria for comparability of models were formulated. The application of the hierarchy analysis method allowed to choose the optimal model to predict the CPI based on the synthesis of quantitative preference vectors.

Keywords: saaty’s ahp method, modeling, forecasting, consumer price index of russia