Mathematical models of the dynamics of the emergence and implementation of information security threats

Authors: Varlataya S. K., Shahanova M. V.

Annotation: The need to develop mathematical models of the dynamics emergence and implementation of information security threats in information systems, due to the importance of taking into account the time factor, with technical data protection and correct assessment of its efficiency. At the same, in the case of the technical data protection in information systems, where the prevailing qualitative approach to the analysis of information security threats , and mathematical models of the dynamics of their emergence and implementation of practically not designed. With this in mind, consider the approach to the development of models based on the theory of streams [1, 2], and to assess the feasibility of emergence and implementation threats using indicators of probability.

Keywords: information security threats, streams of threats, poisson process